Strength of Schedule Analysis
In real football, if you had the second-lowest point total in the league but had the second-highest number of wins, it would be obvious that you had a good defense.
But in fantasy football, there's no such thing as defense, so when something like that happens, it's a matter of good luck. So far, Drew has been living a charmed life, standing above four teams that average at least ten more points per game.
But how lucky has he really been? A point total could be weighed down by a couple of really bad outings. If you score 110 points in five games, and 50 points in two games, a record of 5-2 wouldn't be surprising, even though the 650-point total is poor overall. So let's look at Drew's point distribution:
84 - Loss
85 - Win
87 - Loss
70 - Win
116 - Win
79 - Win
105 - Win
In week two, he won with 85 points, beating the one team that scored fewer points. In week four, he did it again! In week six, he played one of only two teams that he could have beaten! Instead of being 2-5 in an average world, he's 5-2 and in second place. Fantasy indeed.
Of course, I know all about being lucky. I won Markinson last year despite finishing basically tied for third in points. I beat Dean by a game in the standings thanks to two wins against him head to head, even though he would have beaten me 10 times in the 14-week season.
To get a quantitative measure of the luck factor this season, I calculated what our super records would be, i.e our records if we played every other team in the league each week. This completely eliminates the lucky matchup factor, since everyone plays everyone. So the Heineken winner would go 7-0 that week, and the last place team would go 0-7. Over seven weeks, the best possible super record would be 49-0.
I also counted the number of times each team finished in the top four for the week, which I'll call quality starts, to borrow from baseball.
Dufresne
44-5 (7) Dunkel Weizen (6-1)
16-33 (2) Darby United (5-2)
27-22 (3) Texas All Stars (4-3)
24-25 (3) Pansies (4-3)
22-27 (3) Manwhore United (3-4)
25-24 (5) Amer United (3-4)
22-27 (3) Tsunami (2-5)
16-33 (2) Millennium Falcons (1-6)
Clearly nothing lucky about Eddy's record. There were only five possible matchups in seven weeks - less than one per week - that could have resulted in losses, and he had a quality start each week. If anything, maybe it's bad luck that he isn't undefeated.
But check out that outlier in second place. :) Drew is tied for worst with Russell in super record and quality starts but has 4 more wins!
Amer looks a bit unlucky, but of his five quality starts, three of those times he was in fourth place, so the luck isn't quite so bad. Still, it looks like he should be 4-3 rather than 3-4.
Montoya
34-15 (5) Collateral Estoppel (5-2)
31-18 (5) FC Hang (4-3)
28-21 (4) Rapscallions (4-3)
24-25 (3) Fantasia Orins (4-3)
24-25 (4) Julius de la Berg (4-3)
30-19 (5) Da Big G (3-4)
17-32 (1) Proper Villains (3-4)
8-41 (1) Whoosh (1-6)
The outlier in this league is Gina, who is stuck in sixth with the same number of wins as Andrew, despite having 4 more quality starts and a much better super record. She also has the third-highest point total in the league. Like Amer, she should probably be at least 4-3. Andrew looks like a bit of an outlier to the upside.
Markinson
33-16 (5) Amer United (5-2)
27-22 (3) FC Hang (4-3)
27-22 (4) Texas All Stars (4-3)
27-22 (5) Fantasia Orins (4-3)
21-28 (3) Manwhore United (3-4)
24-25 (3) Whoosh (3-4)
20-29 (3) Julius de la Berg (3-4)
17-32 (2) Pansies (3-4)
Nothing egregious here. Nothing as egregious as last year's Markinson:
58-40 (9) FC Hang (11-3)
72-26 (11) Pansies (10-4)
Of Dean's 11 quality starts, only one was a fourth place finish. Of my nine quality starts, four were fourth place finishes. What can I say that I already haven't... I got lucky. But I ain't apologizing for it! :)
The Magic Season
Then there's Scott, who tried to leave nothing to chance in 2006. His super record that year? A ridiculous 92-6!!! He had ten Heinekens, but even in the other four weeks, he finished second, second, third, and third. That's beyond silly.
His only loss? In week 14, the final week of the season, when he had the second-highest score of the week but lost by 0.44 freakin' points to Andrew. Unreal. And talk about the worst possible timing to play Andrew, right at the end of the season, when his 140 moves have finally gelled into a team that's almost as good as Hubert's.
I don't think we'll ever see the likes of Fantasia '06 again.
But in fantasy football, there's no such thing as defense, so when something like that happens, it's a matter of good luck. So far, Drew has been living a charmed life, standing above four teams that average at least ten more points per game.
But how lucky has he really been? A point total could be weighed down by a couple of really bad outings. If you score 110 points in five games, and 50 points in two games, a record of 5-2 wouldn't be surprising, even though the 650-point total is poor overall. So let's look at Drew's point distribution:
84 - Loss
85 - Win
87 - Loss
70 - Win
116 - Win
79 - Win
105 - Win
In week two, he won with 85 points, beating the one team that scored fewer points. In week four, he did it again! In week six, he played one of only two teams that he could have beaten! Instead of being 2-5 in an average world, he's 5-2 and in second place. Fantasy indeed.
Of course, I know all about being lucky. I won Markinson last year despite finishing basically tied for third in points. I beat Dean by a game in the standings thanks to two wins against him head to head, even though he would have beaten me 10 times in the 14-week season.
To get a quantitative measure of the luck factor this season, I calculated what our super records would be, i.e our records if we played every other team in the league each week. This completely eliminates the lucky matchup factor, since everyone plays everyone. So the Heineken winner would go 7-0 that week, and the last place team would go 0-7. Over seven weeks, the best possible super record would be 49-0.
I also counted the number of times each team finished in the top four for the week, which I'll call quality starts, to borrow from baseball.
Dufresne
44-5 (7) Dunkel Weizen (6-1)
16-33 (2) Darby United (5-2)
27-22 (3) Texas All Stars (4-3)
24-25 (3) Pansies (4-3)
22-27 (3) Manwhore United (3-4)
25-24 (5) Amer United (3-4)
22-27 (3) Tsunami (2-5)
16-33 (2) Millennium Falcons (1-6)
Clearly nothing lucky about Eddy's record. There were only five possible matchups in seven weeks - less than one per week - that could have resulted in losses, and he had a quality start each week. If anything, maybe it's bad luck that he isn't undefeated.
But check out that outlier in second place. :) Drew is tied for worst with Russell in super record and quality starts but has 4 more wins!
Amer looks a bit unlucky, but of his five quality starts, three of those times he was in fourth place, so the luck isn't quite so bad. Still, it looks like he should be 4-3 rather than 3-4.
Montoya
34-15 (5) Collateral Estoppel (5-2)
31-18 (5) FC Hang (4-3)
28-21 (4) Rapscallions (4-3)
24-25 (3) Fantasia Orins (4-3)
24-25 (4) Julius de la Berg (4-3)
30-19 (5) Da Big G (3-4)
17-32 (1) Proper Villains (3-4)
8-41 (1) Whoosh (1-6)
The outlier in this league is Gina, who is stuck in sixth with the same number of wins as Andrew, despite having 4 more quality starts and a much better super record. She also has the third-highest point total in the league. Like Amer, she should probably be at least 4-3. Andrew looks like a bit of an outlier to the upside.
Markinson
33-16 (5) Amer United (5-2)
27-22 (3) FC Hang (4-3)
27-22 (4) Texas All Stars (4-3)
27-22 (5) Fantasia Orins (4-3)
21-28 (3) Manwhore United (3-4)
24-25 (3) Whoosh (3-4)
20-29 (3) Julius de la Berg (3-4)
17-32 (2) Pansies (3-4)
Nothing egregious here. Nothing as egregious as last year's Markinson:
58-40 (9) FC Hang (11-3)
72-26 (11) Pansies (10-4)
Of Dean's 11 quality starts, only one was a fourth place finish. Of my nine quality starts, four were fourth place finishes. What can I say that I already haven't... I got lucky. But I ain't apologizing for it! :)
The Magic Season
Then there's Scott, who tried to leave nothing to chance in 2006. His super record that year? A ridiculous 92-6!!! He had ten Heinekens, but even in the other four weeks, he finished second, second, third, and third. That's beyond silly.
His only loss? In week 14, the final week of the season, when he had the second-highest score of the week but lost by 0.44 freakin' points to Andrew. Unreal. And talk about the worst possible timing to play Andrew, right at the end of the season, when his 140 moves have finally gelled into a team that's almost as good as Hubert's.
I don't think we'll ever see the likes of Fantasia '06 again.
posted by Chang Kim at 6:09 PM
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